tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-81463224360345468342023-08-01T14:55:53.934+05:30STOCKFUNDOOPARTNERING YOU IN WEALTH CREATION, USING DUAL TOOLS OF FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS !Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.comBlogger164125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-43155334801582568402016-11-13T10:54:00.006+05:302016-11-13T10:58:18.486+05:30Will Demonetization cause Recession in India?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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On my trip back to Benguluru from
Mumbai, I realized that traffic on famed Bangalore streets appeared
to be much thinner than usual. As they say, cab drivers have the best
pulse of the city, so I decided to chat up with my cab driver on how
the recent demonetization and withdrawal of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes
is affecting him and the city in general.
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I half expected him to strongly
complain about the sudden move and how the common man on the streets
is facing tremendous issues because politicians in far away Delhi has
decided to clean up the black money. However, I was surprised to hear
cab driver's positive opinion and subsequent praise he heaped on
Prime minister Modi. In his half broken Hindi, which he spoke with
great spirit, he informed me on the heaps of notes being burnt in
Benguluru halli's, his 15,000 savings on hand that he is unable to
use now, and his views on changing political dynamics of whole
country because of this move.</div>
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The current surge of patriotism in our
country is unmistakable. But have we committed a hara-kiri in pushing
the fastest growing economy in the world in a tailspin of recession,
unknown economic ramifications and political uncertainty. Lets have
a quick look to analyze this.</div>
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Demonetization in India is a cyclic
affair and is a political tool as well. Every 30-35 years, Indian
governments have implemented this tool, however with limited success.
The subsequent impact of these demonetization drives which happened
in 1946 and 1978, is neither well documented nor studied in depth. As
we can see in GDP growth rate chart for last 50 years, India's
economy was well under water for next two years following 1978
demonetization.</div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BD41N-HHjAc/WCf5z0wquuI/AAAAAAAACpo/RRhxzjBn75EU3aeSaBA7KqTgltSXn3JfQCLcB/s1600/India%2BGDP%2Bgrowth%2Brate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="288" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BD41N-HHjAc/WCf5z0wquuI/AAAAAAAACpo/RRhxzjBn75EU3aeSaBA7KqTgltSXn3JfQCLcB/s640/India%2BGDP%2Bgrowth%2Brate.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Output in manufacturing sector fell in
both 1979-80 and 1980-81 and crisis spread to construction, transport
and trade sectors as well. The recession and fall in private sector
investment was severe inspite of public spending going up in these
two years. Aggregate consumption and fixed investment slowed
considerably in year 1979-80. Reduction in wages in various sectors
was to the tune of -4% to -8% across various sectors in these two
years. All these factors contributed to a negative GDP growth rate of
-5.2% in year 1979-80, thus resulting in one of the most severe
recessions of last 50 years. Political uncertainty and economic
stagnation resulted in regime change in center in 1980 when Janata
government fell.</div>
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However, as hopefuls always maintain,
this time it is different. Urban India has moved to Internet banking,
online transfer, credit card, debit card and cashless payments. On my
two day trip to Mumbai, I had only four hundred rupees cash in my
pocket, and paid for airfare, hotel and taxi via credit card and
still had my prized possession of four hundred rupee notes intact in
my pocket when I came back to Benguluru. However, as my knowledgeable
cab driver informed me, cards and online transfer is only used by a
small minority even in urban India. And when it comes to rural India,
cash economy is the only available option, which is suspended
currently for at least the next few weeks to come. The long
serpentine queues and minor law and order situation in front of ATMs
today is maybe just the tip of the iceberg. </div>
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The impact on economy will be more
severe than anticipated. The usual suspects are cash based sectors
like real estate, election spending, small traders, agricultural
trading, small retailers, jewelry, weddings, luxury brands, and
many more sectors which contribute in a large way to Indian economy.
Indians will have less cash and will spend less, hence it directly
contributes to lower GDP growth for the next 1-2 years. </div>
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To increase economic growth in a
country, typically governments try to purchase bonds and push more
money circulation in the economic system. This is known as Keynesian
stimulus in economic terms. The current demonetization will suck
large amounts of cash from the economic system, and hence will be
counter productive for India's economy. Cash money hoarders will
prefer to burn their cash, instead of paying 200% penalty and hence
total money available in Indian economy will reduce, pushing India to
recession. Less money available in system contributes to less
expenditure and hence directly results in reduction of economic
activity. </div>
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Reduction in business and economic
activity, results in a cycle of reduction of wages and available
money in hand of common worker, which in turn again reduces the
amount of his/her purchases made on food, clothes, transport and
common expenses, hence impacting business and creating more cyclical
slowdown. I was reluctant to share the bad news with my taxi driver,
that probably in next 1-2 years, he should prepare for less people
taking a business trip from and to Bangalore, which will result in
less taxi trips for him and impact his take home salary.</div>
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The biggest impact will appear when
this gets coupled to impending rate hikes in US economy. Fed
authorities have signaled a rate hike regime in US, which is nothing
but movement of money to US bonds, hence reducing the money
available for investment in developing economies such as India.</div>
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Combine this with reduction in money
available within Indian economy and results can be temporary slowdown
at best and full fledged recession at its worst.</div>
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Coming back to the point I raised in
article earlier, we have possibly committed a economic hara-kiri in
pushing the fastest growing economy in the world in a tailspin of
recession and unknown economic ramifications. The best followup
actions for Indian government now is to bring banking system on its
feet back as soon as possible, increase public spending drastically,
plan in advance for next 2 years and take large scale initiatives in
job creating sectors to minimize monetary impact. And meanwhile, I am
planning to take bus transport instead of taxi for my next trip out
of city to save some cash!</div>
</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-42309428251349747052015-04-01T15:25:00.002+05:302016-11-13T10:46:08.347+05:30Inspiring words from a article..<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Yes, India will change but on its own terms, quietly and easily. It may not become the centre of the universe. And if it does ever become the world’s next super power it will not be because of 10% GDP growth rate or the rise of a new nationalism or even its amazing youth power. It will be because of its wisdom, its compassion, its ease with living under its own skin and not wanting to be another China or Singapore.<br />
<br />
All the new Modi has to do is to liberalise more. Liberalise the economy. Liberalise education. Liberalise culture. Nurture the emerging arts. Help grow India’s soft power and its incredible talent. Allow new ideas to flourish. Encourage tourism so that the world may see and love India for what it actually is. Liberalise tax policies; free the entrepreneurial spirit of the Indian people.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/extraordinaryissue/is-a-new-modi-emerging/" target="_blank">Read here</a></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-83173850627267132562015-03-27T11:22:00.000+05:302015-03-27T11:22:02.146+05:30Nifty - Support and Resistance on weekly charts!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Ok, so Indian cricket team lost badly to Aussies and Nifty crashed in remorse! Is it pure coincidence or there is more to what meet the eyes? Pls remember that the world is flat and world of money and liquidity is even flatter!!<br />
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You will be surprised to know that there was a statistical study carried out between Indian cricket team performance on a big match day and Nifty performance on the same day, and it was concluded that Nifty ends on a positive note whenever Indian team wins their big matches!<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
My best guesstimate to explain this behavior is that its a known fact that billions of dollars worth of betting happens on big cricket matches in India. Typically emotional Indians bet on their own team's victory and when Indian team does not win, and one has to settle the account, easiest way to do this is to liquidate your stock positions and make the payment. This results in relentless selling pressure in stock markets on the day India loses a big match! Simple, isn't it? Well, this is just a guess and i don't have any data to prove this correlation.<br />
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However, what i have is weekly support and resistance levels for Nifty. Nifty's next support is at 8160 and once that is breached, support is at 7800 and 7400 levels.<br />
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For resistance, weekly charts show that 8600 is good resistance level and 9000 has become a huge challenge to cross now with huge double top in place.<br />
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Cheers!<br />
Naren<br />
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<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-91630179116041177082015-03-18T10:46:00.001+05:302015-03-18T10:46:08.898+05:30Time to sell Eveready Industries and book profits.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Dear Readers,<br />
<br />
This is a probably a good time to book profits in Eveready Industries for those who hold the stock from long time, or those who have bought the same in a momentum driven rally from last year.<br />
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The charts are cracking now, and stock reached a nice high of 291 Rs and is trading at Rs 269 today. Candles on daily charts are clearly losing momentum now. In a quick panic, when short term and medium term investors exit, the stock can easily lose 50 Rs from here and land at Rs 220-240 in a day or two of panic selling.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
Well, some might say the best time was to sell at Rs 291, but no-one can predict the exact top. When the rally starts losing steam, its often a good time to book profits and lock in whatever best you can extract from markets.<br />
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Pls remember that markers work on fear and greed only. Rest all is theory. Fear in 2013 timeframe drove Eveready to lows of Rs 20 per stock, and now greed driving it to crazy highs of 291 with P/E ratios of more than 146.<br />
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A P/E ratio of 146 means, that even if company distributes all its profits to you every year, it will take 146 years for you to recover your investment.<br />
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So why wait for 146 years, sell today and book your profits now.<br />
All the Best.<br />
<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-49974340010725210352015-03-17T09:13:00.001+05:302015-03-17T09:13:31.347+05:30This high-school dropout built a $1 billion business selling phones nobody wanted!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Sometimes, I read these stories and get really inspired. This is so amazing that youngsters are finding newer things to do, are creative and brash and rack up a billion dollar business in no time. We are probably living in blessed times!!<br />
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<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/pcs-wireless-ben-nash-built-a-billion-dollar-company-2015-3" target="_blank">Do read this startup tale and comment:</a></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-75761825115398504282015-02-05T10:00:00.002+05:302015-02-05T10:00:35.002+05:30Most amazing Startup story i came across - Where do I wire the money, and I will not take it back!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
South Korean investors wired 5MM dollars to Paypal in Mar, 2000 without even signing the deal and refused to take the money back.<div>
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When Thiel got on the phone with them and protested, the South Koreans refused to tell him where he could wire the money back.</div>
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“Their opening negotiation was, ‘We’re not telling you where you can send it back. You have to take it,’” says Thiel. “We ended up with them as investors.”</div>
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<div>
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/peter-thiel-has-an-insane-story-about-what-a-real-tech-bubble-feels-like-2015-2" target="_blank">Read this amazing funny story here.</a></div>
</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-23352197797195642112015-01-29T12:35:00.001+05:302015-01-29T12:35:57.424+05:30Nifty may start cracking from tomorrow!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Markets are behaving unusual from past 10 days or so. The breadth of market is consistently poor and Nifty and Banknifty are opening gap up and breaking new high! Is this unusual behavior? Lets look deeper..<br />
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Any index movement without support of underlying stocks is not real and is looking to be punished. The index movement can be explained by large derivative positions by FIIs and lack of breadth can be attributed to lack of interest in buying by smaller players and DIIs.<br />
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So who will win this game. Obviously after expiry today, the motivation of derivative longs to stay long will be reduced. They can book their profits and may not initiate another long position for next expiry month.<br />
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This results in at least a week of deep correction and cracks in Index like Nifty and BNF, and hence we can see some fireworks on the downside.<br />
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Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-82816505866703960752015-01-26T12:46:00.001+05:302015-01-26T12:46:19.977+05:30Happy Republic Day to all fellow Indians.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Happy Republic Day to all fellow Indians. Was proud to watch the R-day parade!!<br />
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Great celebrations and parade to watch, and with Mr Obama in attendance, proud moment for both India and USA. We have finally got our priorities right and alliances straightened up.<br />
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Watching the event on TV, and was not surprised to hear cynicism in TV anchors and so called experts on TV. There were tired and negative comments on almost each thing that turned up.<br />
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I want to give a simile. Bull run in markets climb the wall of worry and cynicism. Similarly, India will climb and grow despite the negativity and cynicism around us.<br />
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Keep the faith and keep walking!<br />
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<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-44896283064669794762015-01-21T09:45:00.000+05:302015-01-21T09:45:02.487+05:30IMF growth forecast: It's Advantage India over China in 2016!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A useful article on economic predictions for 2016. Not everything may turn out to be true, but massive government expenditure program is sure to set the Indian economy rolling like never before..<br />
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Do read and comment..<br />
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<a href="http://www.firstpost.com/business/imf-growth-forecast-its-advantage-india-over-china-in-2016-2055075.html" target="_blank">IMF growth forecast: It's Advantage India over China in 2016</a><br />
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<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-20690593023371231232015-01-01T20:13:00.001+05:302015-01-01T20:13:22.585+05:302015 a year of Midcaps and Smallcaps! Wishing you a blessed 2015!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Dear Readers,<br />
<br />
Wishing you and family a happy and prosperous year 2015. Year 2014 belonged to large caps and as we know smallcaps and midcaps often lag large caps. As Large caps have run out of steam, action will now be limited to mid and small caps and these stocks will see astounding action in year 2015.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
The Midcap index would easily return 30% or so returns in year 2015, so hold your investments in good quality, undervalues and good value small stocks and wait for the gains to come to you, slowly, easily and peacefully.<br />
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Cheers!</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-5344346217176147252014-11-13T10:27:00.002+05:302014-11-13T10:27:50.394+05:30Vishal Sikka: Indian IT Industry in downward spiral!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
“I find all of us in the industry in a downward spiral. It’s like a treadmill of increasingly lower cost, hiring people faster and faster, from more and more mediocre places, training people less and less, putting them into job faster and faster. I think that is a wrong direction.”<br />
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<b>Very insightful comments from a Industry Leader:</b><br />
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More than 100 days as the chief executive of India’s second-largest information technology (IT) services company Infosys, Vishal Sikka on Wednesday said he was upset at the sector. He added there was a “better direction” the industry must look to take.<br />
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Sikka, who comes from a software product background and was the chief technology officer at Germany-based SAP, said he found the IT services sector a “tale of two cities”.<br />
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On the one hand there were several opportunities, but on the other there was a “depressing reality” of focus on cost arbitrage and lowering costs.<br />
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“I was not deeply familiar with the services industry till recently,” Sikka said in his pre-recorded video keynote address at the CeBIT India conference in Bengaluru on Wednesday.<br />
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Sikka added the sector should not look at “doing old things cheaper” and instead look at doing “new things”.</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-84841118226918838292014-11-08T13:29:00.000+05:302014-11-08T13:29:03.549+05:30A 27-year-old millionaire reveals how he built his wealth!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Some very nice posts i read recently:<br />
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<h1 class="headline" id="yui_3_16_0_1_1415433475140_2719" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', HelveticaNeue, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 35px; font-weight: 300; line-height: 42px; margin: 0px; padding-bottom: 20px; padding-right: 40px; padding-top: 15px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">
<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/27-year-old-millionaire-anton-ivanov-financessful-184823184.html" target="_blank">A 27-year-old millionaire reveals how he built his wealth</a></h1>
</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-11890501392954565642014-11-02T12:18:00.002+05:302014-11-02T12:18:14.649+05:30The Drama of Black Money!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I learnt very early in life that a currency note is a currency note. There is no color of currency note, except the Greenish tinge it has.<br />
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So i am unable to understand the stupid drama whole country of 1.3 Billion people is transfixed with right now. Black money? Whats that, can someone pl explain.<br />
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India runs on unorganized sector, thats the biggest employment provider and everyone knows that padosi Lala ki Dukaan, doesn't has a PAN card, will never give you any receipt of any kind and Lala doesn't pay even a single penny of tax.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
If that is the case, and whole country runs on so called black money and black economy, what is government trying to do, and which black money are we talking about in Swiss banks.<br />
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Before we even go there, Swiss banks do not have a name linked to any account. Swiss only have a numbered account, meaning a account holder only has a number, NOT a name. They do not maintain any file co-relating the name with number. This information is simply unavailable, except with CEO of bank, and CEO of a Swiss bank is always busy playing golf. He does not care about India, or Indian government, or whatever we are trying to do.<br />
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Additionally, the 627 names we have, were disclosed last year, and by this time they have skimmed the account and there is no money lying there. I don't think Indians have only 627 accounts, probably its more like thousands of numbered accounts, without a name or nationality stamped on it.<br />
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How will you recover this money, even if you get the names and account. Will you attack Swiss banks with a Prithvi missile?<br />
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How stupid can we Indians get? Is there a limit to our stupidity? Swiss CEOs might be simply laughing at us, while they play Sunday morning Golf today morning.<br />
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If we need to eradicate this problem, lets first look inside, not outside. Fix the tax rate slabs, the complexity of Tax exemptions and laws, have flat income tax rate on all and be strict in implementation. Currently only people paying tax at those who have no other option like salaried class, which are taxed at source.<br />
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Stop this Stupidity.<br />
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</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-82127715401435964092014-10-29T10:20:00.002+05:302014-10-29T10:20:49.889+05:30Beginning of the end? Indian IT Industry!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
In the beginning of October 2014, there was a small news item which few people might have noticed. That of Yahoo India downsizing heavily and moving its product engineering onshore. Today i read a similar news item in Economic Times and i realized, that one can be a coincidence but two is a trend.<br />
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<a href="http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/07/yahoo-lays-off-employees-in-india-reportedly-up-to-2000-affected/" target="_blank">Yahoo Lays off 400 in India</a><br />
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<a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/ibm-scaling-down-india-business-md-vanitha-narayanan-to-return-to-us/articleshow/44964938.cms" target="_blank">IBM scaling down in India, moves management to US</a><br />
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For past two decades, Indian engineering graduates assume that scraping through a college degree insures them a lifetime of cozy IT sector salary and career. Well i am one of these believers, however these two news items clearly state that MNCs are clearly ahead of the curve.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
MNCs hired in India in bulk, when no one had even heard India's name or believed in us, and now they are closing down when the India trend is getting established and hence they are either totally wrong or clearly ahead of the curve.<br />
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So what is the core reason here?<br />
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Software product development business is clearly moving to smaller teams, aka Facebook, WhatsApp and Google, where core product team is 3-4 member in size. Hence the bulk engineering talent advantage of India is clearly not required. Come to think of it, total company size of Whatsapp is less than 50 people, with its multi-billion dollar of valuations et al.<br />
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Secondly, Wage differential is diminishing with US graduates willing to work for less and Indian wages at higher end of talent spectrum matching those in US.<br />
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Thirdly, with Cloud, Mobile, and other disruptive technologies, firms want to control Product development close to their chest. They want control back when it comes to core product lines and want to re-engage closely with their best developers sitting in front of them.<br />
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And there are some more reasons.<br />
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So who will hire tons of engineering graduates swimming out of Indian engineering factories each year. Well, look forward to our desi firms like Flipkarts, Snapdeals and of course desi IPPs like Wipro, TCS and Infosys.<br />
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The now experienced Indian developer, who has by now drank ghat-ghat ka pani, will also start his own garage startup, so pls beware of next billion dollar firm coming out of Indore or Mysore or any such place. This is a boon in disguise.<br />
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Clearly, all is not lost, but this trend of reverse offshoring is present and it will only grow stronger from here. <br />
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What do you think ? Write in and let us know.</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-64376196802016033112014-10-03T14:57:00.002+05:302014-10-03T14:58:03.906+05:3020 Stock Picks that went well for me!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I wrote about some of my picks which did not deliver and got good response from readers. It is helpful to learn from each other mistakes and success stories. Here are some stock picks which worked well for me in past few years:<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b>Auto</b><br />
CEAT<br />
JBM Auto<br />
JK Industries<br />
<br />
<b>Finance</b><br />
Can Fin Homes<br />
<br />
<b>Cement</b><br />
JK Corp<br />
<br />
<b>Chemicals</b><br />
Excel cropcare<br />
<br />
<b>Infra/Realty</b><br />
BS Transcomm<br />
Kolte Patil<br />
<br />
<b>Capital Goods</b><br />
Eveready Industries<br />
Shilpi Cables<br />
<br />
<b>FMCG</b><br />
KRBL<br />
Tasty Bites<br />
<br />
<b>IT/BPO</b><br />
Firstsource<br />
Sonata Software<br />
<br />
<b>Entertainment</b><br />
PVR<br />
Inox<br />
<br />
<b>Pharma</b><br />
Camson Biotech<br />
<br />
<b>Plastics</b><br />
Nilkamal Plastics<br />
<br />
<b>Retail</b><br />
Liberty Shoes<br />
<br />
In my view<br />
1. Diversified portfolio is better for Retail investors as we are the last to know of any good/bad news<br />
2. The stocks mentioned above are still good for next 2/3 years' bull run.<br />
<br />
Cheers<br />
Naren</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-55499561057875442022014-09-25T12:01:00.001+05:302014-09-26T09:19:27.418+05:30Simple reason for why its difficult to make money in stock markets!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
FEAR!<br />
<br />
Today markets are crashing and most midcaps are down by 10% or more. Are you afraid?<br />
<br />
If yes, you will find it difficult to make money in markets. Today and for next few days or weeks is a good time to nibble in markets and buy good stocks at lower cost.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
But if you are afraid, you wont be able to buy! So its difficult to make money consistently.<br />
<br />
Simple way to make money is buy when everyone is afraid and prices are low and sell when people are excited and prices are higher. Simple, but tough.</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-65264279858350859652014-09-21T19:00:00.000+05:302014-09-26T09:19:36.553+05:30My investing mistakes of past few years - 20 bad stocks!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
All bloggers write about their success story, and i have been no different so far. But, everyone makes mistakes and sweep their mistake under the carpet. No one talks about the battles they lost!<br />
<br />
Well, I think i should be honest and i am detailing out 20 bad stocks that i picked in last 4-5 years and lost money. Some of these have stopped trading and others are just penny stocks now.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li>Brandhouse Retail</li>
<li>REI six ten retail</li>
<li>REI agro</li>
<li>Ankur Pharma</li>
<li>Anu Lab</li>
<li>Amar Remedies</li>
<li>Raj Oil</li>
<li>KS Oil</li>
<li>Parekh Aluminex</li>
<li>Midfield Industries</li>
<li>Deccan Chronicles</li>
<li>ICSA</li>
<li>Zylog systems</li>
<li>Geodesic</li>
<li>ICSA</li>
<li>Timbor Home</li>
<li>Everonn</li>
<li>Edserv</li>
<li>Bilpower</li>
<li>Winsome</li>
</ol>
<br />
Why did i invest in these bad stocks? Well, some of them failed due to bad business environment and were better firms when i decided to invest in them.<br />
<br />
And some other are simply my mistake - either a hot business sector turned bad like e-Education or corrupt management like KS oils, Winsome or value traps like Deccan Chronicle or business which could not scale up like Timbor homes or some fly-by-night operators like Ankur Pharma.<br />
<br />
Hopefully this post will help you avoid the investing mistake i did. We will always end up making some wrong investments, but key to survive is to diversify your portfolio, never put good money after bad money and get rid of bad stocks as soon as possible.<br />
<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-57618394501256373722014-09-20T14:35:00.001+05:302014-09-26T09:19:44.927+05:30Reader Query: I want to invest Rs 25,000 every month.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Often readers ask questions like "I want to invest Rs 25,000 every month or every year" and how do I go about doing this.<br />
<br />
There are some extremely good stocks which you can buy systematically over a period of time to generate wealth. These are:<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<b>Auto</b>:<br />
<br />
Apollo Tyres<br />
Ashok Leyland<br />
Escort<br />
<br />
<b>Banking/Finance:</b><br />
<br />
Canara Bank<br />
IDBI<br />
Reliance Capital<br />
<br />
<b>Cement</b>:<br />
JK Corp<br />
<br />
<b>Chemicals:</b><br />
Philip Carbon Black<br />
<br />
<b>Realty:</b><br />
Brigade Enterprises<br />
Sobha Developers<br />
<br />
<b>Consumer</b>:<br />
Voltas<br />
Zicom<br />
<br />
<b>Capital Goods</b>:<br />
Kalpataru Power Transmissions<br />
Valecha Engineering<br />
<br />
<br />
Each sector has good scrips that will make money for you year on year. So keep SIPing and see your wealth grow.<br />
Buy more when markets are down and Sell slowly when markets climb up. Thats all you need to do.<br />
<br />
Cheers<br />
Naren<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-12186281546838236402014-09-13T12:15:00.000+05:302014-09-13T12:15:02.362+05:30Great presentation on how to take a positional Short on a Stock!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/carson-block-muddy-waters-presentation-2014-9#-1" target="_blank">I went through this article yesterday and thought its a great idea to share with all readers!</a><br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-57122868356426404942014-09-07T17:21:00.002+05:302014-09-26T09:19:54.868+05:30Why Mary Kom is a great movie to watch! And why it will make you a better Trader!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
It was a great experience watching "Mary Kom" movie today afternoon. The thought that a trader's life is so much similar to that of boxer kept creeping in my head, throughout the movie.<br />
<br />
Mary Kom - five times amateur world boxing champion - is a story of hard work, grit, determination, tears, blood oozing out of your lips and much more. It is a single person standing against system, punching in and out, taking punches on your face and bowing to acknowledge them and moving on.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
It is a story that is capable of moving you, creating knots in your stomach, moving you like no other movie will move you. It is the story of one of the greatest Indian sportswomen of our times.<br />
<br />
Boxing is a tough sport. But it is a sport, not a battle, like Mary's coach warns her very early on. Like Trading. It is a art and science. It is a battle of wits, speed and concentration against your opponent. The greatest of traders take punches. They bleed and they lose. The secret is to stay on, keep fighting and live to trade another day.<br />
<br />
The secret to becoming a great trader is embedded in the movie. It is to struggle against markets, against millions of algorithms running in the market, it is to be nimble and guess opponent's next move and it is to follow the rules. And train hard.<br />
<br />
Watch the movie. It will make you a better trader!<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-22038343634192551732014-08-31T12:01:00.003+05:302014-09-26T09:20:46.432+05:30Interesting Midcap, Smallcap stocks to buy now...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Hi Friends,<br />
<br />
So markets are dull from past one month or so and smallcaps and midcaps are going no where. This is because of two-three reasons. One being, economy is picking up, but smaller firms always lag in their growth, revenues and profits and hence their results will take at least 6 months to show improvement in numbers.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
Secondly, sharp run-up in midcap and smallcap prices from their depressing aybss has left everyone breathless and time correction is underway. And third reason being, large investors like LIC are selling right now, so obviously there is lack of ammunition.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
All said and done, there is some stocks which are interesting and can be nibbled upon. Lets look at these:<br />
<br />
1. Globus Spirits<br />
<br />
2. Atlas Cycles<br />
<br />
3. Philips Carbon Black<br />
<br />
4. Jaypee Infratech<br />
<br />
5. Videocon Industries<br />
<br />
6. Zicom<br />
<br />
7. A2Z Maintenance<br />
<br />
8. Dhunseri Petrochem<br />
<br />
9. Venky's India<br />
<br />
10. Eros International Media<br />
<br />
A portfolio with above stocks should deliver 20-25% YoY return in next 3-4 years!<br />
<br />
Cheers<br />
Naren<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-22444158745659990152014-08-02T13:26:00.000+05:302014-09-26T09:20:56.492+05:30Courageous Modi government veto's WTO agreement...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
PM Modi and his government is courageous and are a bunch of patriots. This was again demonstrated when Mr Modi single-handedly blocked a agreement of 168 countries and did well in doing so.<br />
<br />
Sample this view and counter-view article and decide for yourself:<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: vidaloka_regular; font-size: 24px; font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://www.mumbaimirror.com/columns/columnists/ajit-ranade/Why-India-is-not-WTO-villain/articleshow/39435699.cms" target="_blank">Why India is not WTO villain</a></span><br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
The US is often accused of distorting world cotton market, as it dumps its excess stock. So India's position was that the agreement on agriculture provide an exemption for food subsidy (meant for survival of poor people).<br />
<br />
<h1 style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Roboto Condensed'; line-height: 40px; margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/nine-reasons-why-india-s-wto-veto-shocked-the-world-569216" target="_blank">Nine Reasons Why India's WTO Veto Shocked the World</a></span></h1>
<div>
India's veto may be the beginning of the end for the WTO. Trade experts say that if the WTO's 20-year-old rulebook does not evolve, more and more trade will be governed by new regional agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will have their own rules and systems of resolving disputes. That could lead to a fragmented world of separate trade blocs.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is a very complex legal topic and outside our scope :) However, rest assured, our country is safe in hands of a very brave leader, who is not afraid of what the whole world thinks or does. He simple thinks about welfare of our poor people.<br />
<br />
Cheers to that for being pro-poor and now lets go back to our Lamborghini and drink Champagne! </div>
</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-38630263141737190692014-07-26T16:25:00.001+05:302014-09-26T09:21:10.959+05:30Few interesting articles..<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Ok, so my apologies to start with... I have been very quiet from last "<i>god knows how many months"</i> on my blog...Since i was regular last, markets have changed, government has changed, and India is on a different territory all together...<br />
<br />
So let me start all over again and promise myself to be more regular on this forum..<br />
<br />
For starters, here is what I read this weekend and my views on them..<br />
<br />
<b><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/former-microsoft-employee-talks-about-getting-fired-2014-7" target="_blank">A Former Microsoft Employee Shares His Experience Of Getting Fired After 15 Years</a></b><br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
So for you people, who think your job is your life, think again. You don't have to ditch your job, but your job can ditch you anytime. Always be ready in today's world. Keep walking, keep learning, as they say!<br />
<br />
<b><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/if-you-want-to-be-rich-dont-get-an-mba-2014-7" target="_blank">If You Want To Be Rich, Don't Get An MBA</a></b><br />
<br />
So yet another article on MBA debate. And some useful snippets on how rich think! Think like them, ape them, if you want to be them!<br />
<br />
Some nuggets from above article, so that you don't have to do the effort to read it :)<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;">If you want to be rich, you must be an entrepreneur, investor, or both..</span><br />
<em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;">A job will not make you rich.</em><br />
<em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;">However, </em><em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;">An MBA may not make you rich, but it can open doors..</em><br />
<em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;"><br /></em>
<em style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;">Cheers!</em><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 19px; line-height: 28.5px;"><br /></span></div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-78707396994419880812014-05-10T12:56:00.004+05:302014-05-10T12:56:45.882+05:30How to Trade on Election Results Day!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Indian Elections are coming to an end,
and these massive elections are the biggest election event in the
history of mankind! Not only political observers, but economic and
market participants are holding their breath for the election results
which will start trickling in soon! May 12<sup>th</sup> evening will
start the results season in format of exit polls and markets will be
very volatile in the week of 13<sup>th</sup> May to 16<sup>th</sup>
May. In the week after, 19<sup>th</sup> May – 20 May will also be
large swing days as markets will need at least 1-2 days to digest the
complete poll outcomes. So how does a common investor or trader face
these 7 days of volatility and uncertainty.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In mathematics domain, one solves the
problem of uncertain outcomes by assigning a probability to each of
the individual outcomes and hence tries to ascertain the final
probable result set. There are five possible outcomes based on the
number of seats that current front-runner NDA can win.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Election Outcome and Possible
Scenarios:</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Total number of outcomes are as
follows:</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 1 – Moderate results – NDA
gets 230-240 seats</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 2 – Slightly Bullish results
– NDA gets 240-260 seats</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 3 – Very Bullish results –
NDA gets 270+ seats
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 4 – Slightly Bearish – NDA
gets 210-230 seats</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 5 – Very Bearish – NDA
falls short of 200 seats</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Probability of these Scenario
occuring and its Impact on Sensex:</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Next step is to assign a probability to
these outcomes. Outcome 1 is expected to be widely the case and
probability of this event is close to 40%. Outcome 2 and Outcome 4
can have 20% probability each and that leaves black swan events like
Outcome 3 and Outcome 5 with 10% probability each.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Currently with Sensex close to 23,000
mark, market participants are widely expecting Outcome 1 to be the
possible outcome of these elections. Thus, Outcome 1 will create
least volatility and market will trade in possible bullish range of
22,500 to 24,000 if this outcome is realized.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 2 can result in a 24,000 to
26,000 rally on sensex. This means a possible 10% rise from here on
and trading can halt at least once if this outcome is realized.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 3 will be a Upper Circuit
scenario and possibly have trading halted multiple times on result
day or even cancelled for the day. The Sensex will possibly end north
of 27,000 if this extremely bullish scenario is realized.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
However, lets look at other side of
picture, if NDA fails to get favourable outcome and Outcome 4 and
Outcome 5 are realized.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 4 will create a crash like
scenario where Sensex will close below 22,000 and possibly touch the
lower levels of 21,000 as well. This will be a lower circuit of 10%
and trading may halt at least once during the day.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Outcome 5 will be very bearish and
trading may halt for multiple times and possibly trading can cancel
for the entire day as well. This scenario may mean that no party will
be able to form the government and Sensex will continue to crash for
many more days to come. Sensex may see below 20,000 levels if this
scenario is realized.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>How to Trade on these Outcomes</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Basically, there are three instruments
available to trade Indian markets currently. Traders can take a
position in Cash segment, trade in Options or trade in Futures
market.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
If a trader wants to take a position in
Cash segment, there is about 70% probability (Outcome 1 + 2 + 3) that
his or her bets will result in profit. There is still 30% probability
that he or she may lose if Outcome 4 or 5 is realized. However,
current midcaps and smallcaps have lot of value still left on the
table and any medium to long term investor can realize lot of value
if favorable election results are realized.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
For traders in Options, one needs to
look at current VIX values which denote voltaility in the market.
Please remember that if you buy options, you pay more money if
volatility is higher for the same option, with everything else
remaining the same. So option sellers are often better placed than
option buyers in highly volatile environments as these.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
However, options selling is not
recommended for retail traders, as markets may halt on result days
and it may be impossible to close a unfavorable position, thus
realizing heavy unlimited losses.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Option buying strategy will also result
in low profit as your input cost is already gone up with Indian VIX
at multi-year highs of 38 as of today. With option buying, your net
loss is limited to premium value, hence taking a position in options
is a low risk, low profit scenario currently.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Futures trading are again subject to
the risks of heavy losses and possible trading halts, so not
recommended strategy for retail traders currently. Market makers and
program trades will stand to gain in these scenarios, as quick price
movement creates high bid-ask spreads and multiple profitable,
arbitrage opportunities in futures.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
All in all, these are interesting times
and each day teaches us a lot in terms of tackling markets and
gunning for profits. Trade safe for the next 1-2 weeks and keep your
bets strictly limited by your risk apetite and money management. </div>
</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8146322436034546834.post-70735555544920407042014-04-11T19:07:00.002+05:302014-09-26T09:20:15.356+05:3020 Stock Ideas for 100% gain in next 12 months!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Hello Readers,<br />
<br />
With the election bandwagon in full swing, and markets in strong up-move, the biggest gainer is the midcap and smallcap space.<br />
<br />
Below is a quick reference list of stocks, which will help you build a portfolio to capture the most of this upmove. A good bull run in next 12 months should help you to achieve 100% gains in next 12 months at current prices.<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><b>Consumer Durables</b></li>
<li>Videocon</li>
<li>Zicom</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Capital Goods</b></li>
<li>Ion Exchange</li>
<li>Valecha Engg</li>
<li><a name='more'></a><br /></li>
<li><b>FMCG</b></li>
<li>Venkey's</li>
<li>Dhunseri Tea</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>IT</b></li>
<li>Polaris</li>
<li>FirstSource</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Media</b></li>
<li>Inox</li>
<li>Balaji Telefilms</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Metals</b></li>
<li>Hind Copper</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Pharma</b></li>
<li>Venus Remedies</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Plastic</b></li>
<li>Nilkamal</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Power</b></li>
<li>Torrent Power</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Logistics/Rail</b></li>
<li>Titagarh Wagons</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Retail</b></li>
<li>Archies Limited</li>
<li><b><br /></b></li>
<li><b>Refinery</b></li>
<li>Aban Offshore</li>
<li><b><br /></b></li>
<li><b>Sugar</b></li>
<li>Renuka Sugars</li>
<li><br /></li>
<li><b>Telecom</b></li>
<li>Reliance Comm</li>
<li><b><br /></b></li>
<li><b>Textile</b></li>
<li>Alok Industries</li>
</ul>
<div>
These are our top 20 stocks for next 1 year!</div>
<div>
Cheers!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Naren Lokwanihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16874239087015042891noreply@blogger.com0