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Thursday, January 3, 2013

Stocks Corner: Your questions and our Answers!

This post is dedicated to my Mom-in-Law who passed away unexpectedly, and left us for a higher and better world. Will miss you forever Ma.

Valued readers have sent in their queries:
Good portfolio, Bad Portfolio

Question: Pl. find herewith an attachment of my current Portfolio. You are requested to pl. advice me to hold or sell it this stocks. For investment which is better option e.g. Mutual Fund or Share market.

Answer:
Dear Sanjay, you have a list of 10 stocks in your portfolio and all of these are below your purchase price currently. Stocks like Renuka, Rpower, SJVN and Praj Ind are good quality stocks, however your other six holdings BirlaPower, JSWIspat, MavensBio, TTML, UgarSugar and ZenithBir are not fundamentally worth holding at this point of time.

So you can divide your portfolio in two parts – Fundamentally Good portfolio with Four Stocks and Fundamentally Bad portfolio with Six stocks. Your strategy to come out of this situation should be to aim for decent profit in your good portfolio and aim for at-least your cost/purchase price for your Bad portfolio.

Over a period of time, eliminate your bad portfolio as and when you receive your cost price and increase investment in good portfolio on dips and at lower levels. Thus over a year or so of cleaning, you would have only few good stocks in your portfolio and should be able to make good profit on those. All the best.

Balrampur Chini Mills 

Question: I have purchased Balrampur chini mills @Rs.67/-share for qty.1000 shares, presently its trading about 25% below i.e. around 50/-share. Please suggest/advice what to do.

Answer:
Balrampur Chini had a decent Sept quarter, where it made revenues of Rs 888 crores and was profitable at EPS of Rs 2. At this runrate, annual EPS could be as high as Rs 8, wherein the stock would be available at PE ratio of just about 6 or so.

Firm is trading close to its Book Value of Rs 50. FIIs are increasing their holding in the stock, and have 17.37% of holding vs 16% one quarter ago and 15.02 two quarters ago. Current market cap is just about 1200 crores, hence it is trading at decent valuations for a long term investment.

Technically speaking, 46 to 51 is a congestion zone and once Balrampur trades out of this zone, it would reach resistance levels of 55, 60 and 66 respectively. Currently the stock is sitting on good support of 46, hence can be accumulated. You can see levels of upto 70 in next 2-3 months.

ICICI Bank

Question: I have few shares of ICICI bank bought @ Rs930/unit in 2011. Is it the right time to sell it or should I hold?

Answer:
In the year 2013, interest rates are expected to decline through out the year, which increases profitability of banks, as lower rates prompts more loans and borrowing and hence greater business and Net Margins for Banks. If you look at FII holding of ICICI bank, it is going up quarter on quarter, from 35.9% to 36.48%. General public shareholding is as low as 5.22% and is going down. Hence knowledgeable folks are accumulating the stock.

Technically speaking, 1100 is the nearest support, so you shouldn’t be worried till 1100 is intact. 1270 should be a good place to book partial profits. At about 1450, you can book complete profits. You can see these higher levels in next 12 months.

Container Corporation of India

Question: Kindly suggest about CONCOR - Container Corporation Of India.
At this level, whether stock can be accumulated. or at what level ???

Answer:
Concor is a fundamentally strong stock however it is not a fast moving or swing trading type of scrip. The stock has habit of staying in range for a long period of time, during which investor patience might run out. Currently the scrip is trading between a range of support of 825 and resistance of 1025.

Next resistance level is at 1185, and above which next strong resistance is at level of 1450. You can see these levels in next 6-12 month timeframe. Can be accumulated at current levels with a stop loss of 825.

2 comments:

  1. Sorry to hear about your mom-in-law , may her soul rest in peace.

    Naren Bhai ,

    Please advice on L&T Fin Holdings.

    I have been investing in this scrip from 50 levels and my average stands at 65 currently.

    L&T Fin Holding had risen from 50 odd levels to 80 levels in very short period in november.

    There were speculations of it acquiring other small banks , being the most probable candidate for banking license , FIIs investing in it secretly etc etc.

    The Volume was very high in november with some crore shares being traded daily.

    The Stock was moved into T2T segment in Dec first week post which i had expected it to crumble down to 60 odd levels.

    It had fallen back to 70 level but once it was moved to T2T segment it saw Back to Back Upper circuits for straight 4-5 days. Pushing the price to 90 level.Since then its been trading in 88-94 levels.

    RBI had put up conditions to the parliament of passing the banking regulations amendment bill before it is pressurized to draft the final norms for banking license and kick off the selection process. The Amendment bill was passed in Parliament on Dec 20-21. Post which there was a thunderous shower of speculations regarding L&T Fin being the next most likely contender & highly exaggerated price targets.

    L&T Fin Chairman Mr Deosthalee has himself expressed desire to bagg the license stating that would propel the company to next level.

    It has acquired DBS CHOLA , Indo PAcific Housing, Family Credit, Fidelity in near term.It is currently debt financing PVR cinemax deal & also has sold 4.7% stake in Federal garnering huge surplus cash. Promoters (L&T) currently hold 82% which they would need to dilute to 75% before Sept 2013 as per SEBI's terms. There are speculations that L&T will pull in a FII to buy this excess 7% of holding.

    Given all this , what do you suggest to be the right price to increase holdings ? P/E is currently very high at 187. Do you see it coming down to levels below my holding price(65) or it is poised to move further upwards ? (given that RBI will start banking license process this year , speculations will not die down in this counter)

    Due to very high P/E and not much change in fundamentals i had refrained from re-investment since november hoping it will come down once speculations end. But It hasnt come down since then...and i am confused since i dont want to increase my average too much and grab it for lowest possible price.

    Please share your views on this stock...thanks a lot !!

    Best Wishes For 2013 !

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Naren Sir ,

    I have been following your blog from last 6 months & would want to thank you for all the valuable advice & knowledge you have been sharing with us.

    Requesting humbly to please share your views again on Rei Agro , It has again fallen back to 10 odd levels. I expected it to break 12.5 & move to 15 - 17 areas by december end but the grip of manipulator is so much that he is controlling the stock like a God and has pulled back the price to instill fear in the retail investors.

    What is your view now about rei agro ?? how much duration do you can it take to go to levels of 17 ?? For how long do you think such price range manipulation will continue in this scrip?? Will it continue till they get the desired SHP ??

    thank you very much...
    Hiten.

    ReplyDelete

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